Chance can turn a surgeon into a killer

Risk-adjusted 30- to 90-day outcome data for selected types of operations done by specific surgeons and hospitals are now being publicly posted online by Englands National Health Service.

According to the site, "Any hospital or consultant [attending surgeon in the UK] identified as an outlier will be investigated and action taken to improve data quality and/or patient care."

After cardiac surgery outcomes data were made public in New York, some interesting unexpected consequences were noted.

Surgeons and hospitals resorted to "gaming the system" by declining to operate on patients who were high-risk and tinkering with patient charts to make those they did operate on seem sicker. This can be done by scouring the charts for all co-morbidities and making sure none are overlooked when they are coded. An article from New York Magazine explains it in more detail.

Interpreting outcomes data can be tricky.

In a post three years ago about a report that nine Maryland hospitals had higher-than-average complication rates, I pointed out that whenever you have averages, some hospitals are going to be worse than average unless all hospitals perform exactly the same way or, like medical students, are all above average.

A much more sophisticated way of looking at this subject appeared in a fascinating 2010 BBC News piece by Michael Blastland, who is the Nate Silver of England [or maybe Nate Silver is the Michael Blastland of the US], called "Can chance make you a killer?"

Blastland set up a statistical chance calculator for a hypothetical set of 100 hospitals or 100 surgeons performing 100 operations each. The model assumes that every patient has the same chance of dying and that every surgeon is equally competent. The standard is that a mortality rate 60% worse than the norm set by the government for any hospital or surgeon is not acceptable.

You are assigned one hospital. Using a slider, you may choose an operative mortality rate anywhere from 1% to 15%. After you do this a number of times and recalculate for each mortality rate, you will notice that the number of unacceptably performing hospitals or surgeons changes randomly for each percent mortality and your hospital may appear in the underperforming group strictly by chance alone.

The whole concept is explained in more detail on the site. I encourage you to try it for yourself. The link is here.

So it may be difficult for the NHS to separate the true outliers from the unlucky surgeons who happened to fall outside the established norms.

What do you think about this?

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Buhari unbundles NNPC into 7 units names new heads

President Buhari has approved the immediate unbundling of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, into seven independent operational units. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu, made this known today March 8th. According to Kachiukwu, the new units are Upstream, Downstream, Gas & Power, Refineries, Ventures, Corporate Planning & Services and Finance and Accounts.

He said each of the units would be headed by chief executive officers, namely Bello Rabiu for Upstream; Henry Ikem-Onih (downstream); Anibor Kragha (Refineries); Saudu Mohammed (Gas & Power), Babatunde Adeniran (Ventures), Isiaka Abdulrasaq Finance & Accounting and Isa Inuwa ?Executive Head, Corporate Planning and Services.

All appointments take immediate effect.

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Reaction to post on academia and social media

"Should social media accomplishments be recognized by academia?" a post of mine from October 4th, generated some lively discussion on Twitter.

Here are a few of the more interesting responses:

@ashishkjha Important question from @Skepticscalpel Should academia value impact on social media? Yes. And its coming. Slowly.

@MartinSGaynor Science comes 1st, 2nd, 3rd.. MT @ashishkjha Important Q: @Skepticscalpel Shld academia value impact on social media?

@ashishkjha agree how to measure impact a key question. Eye balls cant be enough. But too important a question to ignore.

?@DoctorTennyson Yes-I think social media has a role for #publichealth, #education, and fosters collaboration. More than obscure journals

@NirajGusani still you add value to your dept -how do/should they measure it?

?@gorskon Heck, at @ScienceBasedMed, we get 1M page views a month, but I get no credit.

@gorskon I agree though. For the most part, social media harms, not helps, academic career.

@gorskon Cranks complaining to my chair & cancer center director dont help.

@gorskon If I ever want to change jobs, Google searches will likely harm, not help, prospects

@Nadia_EMPharmD We actually asked this very question in a study we published this past year:

?@JBMatthews Academic tracks have been modernized in many places including ours; beyond # of publcns.

@JBMatthews As a journal editor and department chair, I believe its starting to "count"

?@nataliestavas We should study what has more meaningful impact, # of twitter followers or an article in the @NEJM

Most agreed that social media activity should count for something, but quantifying that something may be difficult. A certain number of followers or page views would not necessarily signify value.

Via email, Dr. Jeffrey B. Matthews, Dallas B. Phemister Professor and Chairman of the Department of Surgery at the University of Chicago, said his school of medicine created a new track for faculty that does not require traditional scholarship for academic promotion. It is non-tenure (tenure still requires traditional discovery and traditional measures of impact and importance), but there is otherwise no distinction of title.

To advance to professor requires evidence that the faculty member is outstanding. The chair and faculty committee must define what "outstanding" means, whether it is distinction in clinical practice like a high-volume, high-complexity specialty or a national draw of patients, in educational leadership such as a program director with leadership roles at APDS, ABS, RRC, or "other."

He added, "I would have ZERO trouble convincing our promotions committee that a high visibility blog with high traffic views that had evidence of thought leadership in the public domain would qualify as high impact and outstanding. And that is at the University of Chicago."

What do you think of the University of Chicagos progressive stance?

Have any other schools taken such steps?

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In what specialties can a surgeon be autonomous

I am a medical student who is trying to decide on a field. I am not chasing money but rather autonomy; thus I would prefer to work for myself rather than a hospital. So my question is, which fields of surgery are more amenable to private practice, and which fields tend to require the resources of a hospital or dont work as well without a hospital?

The way things are going; future use of the words “autonomous” and “physician” in the same sentence will be rare, if not unheard of.

Here are some figures from a July 2015 American Medical Association report.

• Younger physicians were more likely than older physicians to be employed. About 59% of physicians under the age of 40 were employed, versus 46.0% of physicians aged 40-54 and 33.3% of physicians 55 and above.
• Nearly one-third of physicians are in practices with more than 10 physicians, including 13.5 percent in practices with 50 or more physicians.
• Multi-specialty practice physicians were more likely than single-specialty practice physicians to report that their practices were hospital owned—44.6% compared to 23.0%.

Who knows what the percentage of employed physicians will be by 2020, but it surely will be higher.

I can think of only two surgical specialties that can be mostly independent of hospitals, otolaryngology and plastic surgery. I am not including ophthalmology because it isn’t really a classic surgical specialty.

The only way otolaryngologists and plastic surgeons can be autonomous is by concentrating solely on cosmetic surgery or working only in an ambulatory surgery center.

Otherwise, you would need a complete operating room—staffed by a nurse, an operating room technician and for some cases, an anesthesiologist—in your office.

Very few surgeons are able to limit their practices to cosmetic surgery directly out of residency or fellowship. Unless you join an established cosmetic surgeon in practice, which would of course limit your autonomy, you will need to be on call for trauma and be available for consults involving problems like pressure sores in hospitals to pay the bills.

My observation as a surgical chairman in community hospitals was that it takes years before the average plastic surgeon is able to develop a reputation and focus solely on cosmetic surgery.

You should also be aware that both of those specialties are highly competitive. In this years match, only 1 of 299 ENT positions went unfilled, and 364 US seniors had ranked ENT as their preferred choice. For plastics, there are two ways to obtain a position. The NRMP handles an integrated match which filled 144 of 148 positions. There were 162 US seniors who listed Integrated plastics as their preferred choice. The other match is independent of the NRMP and takes residents who have done varying years of general surgery. For that 2015 match, which placed applicants in positions starting in July 2016, 85 applicants submitted rank lists, and 68 of 70 positions were filled. That left 17 candidates unmatched.

Additional reading: A post on KevinMD entitled “So doctor, who’s your boss?”

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So you got into medical school… Now what

"So you got into medical school… Now what?" is a book written by Dr. Daniel R. Paull, a recent med school graduate. His aim was to inform newly matriculating medical students about what to expect and how to survive. For the most part, he succeeds.

The first four chapters are a bit on the dry side because Dr. Paull tries to simplify such complex things as how to live with anxiety in the first two years of medical school. He also spends a bit too much time on how to study. I agree with him that studying in medical school differs from studying in college, and that sticking to a schedule is a sensible way to organize time. However, I think that most people will figure out what works best for them on their own.

The book picks up steam starting with Chapter 5 on how to prepare for USMLE Step 1. I get a lot of questions about USMLE, and with no recent experience, I sometimes find them difficult to answer. Dr. Paull takes care of that quite nicely.

The remaining chapters offer plenty of practical advice on transitioning to the clinical years, clerkships and how to arrange them, studying for the two parts of USMLE Step 2, the fourth year of medical school, and finally how to arrange and succeed in the all-important residency interview process.

Regarding clerkships, Dr. Paull wisely recommends that students ask their residents and attendings for feedback during the rotation instead of waiting until the end to find out that their performance was not up to par. He gives some specifics like asking for feedback about H&Ps and presentations and how to improve on them.

The pros and cons of away rotations are discussed in some detail and should help any student who is conflicted about whether to do one or not.

He explains how the National Resident Matching Program works and offers some hints about ranking programs which echo similar comments I have made on this blog.

The book is in trade paperback format and inexpensive at a list price of $19.95. Its also available in a Kindle edition.

My only other criticism of the book is that Dr. Paull relies a little too much on an alarm clock about to go off or going off as a way to introduce a challenge he is trying to help students deal with.

Why should we believe anything Dr. Paull says? Well, he has a bachelor of science degree in physics from New York University, graduated from the University of Miami School of Medicine, and is currently an orthopedic resident at the University of Toledo in Ohio. In case you hadnt heard, orthopedic residencies are highly competitive.

Also, I have read the book myself and think most med students will find value in it.

Disclosure: I received a complimentary copy of the book from the author.

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